THEY WOULDN'T ... WOULD THEY? (or "HISTORY NEVER REPEATS")

The violent protests sweeping the Middle-East in recent days are so oddly motivated, and so opportunely timed, as to raise a serious question or two.

While “mainstream” Islam backpedals from the attacks, and citizens in Benghazi line the streets holding signs of mourning for murdered US Ambassador Stevens, a radical fringe has seized on a laughably flimsy pretext to whip-up anti-western feeling. The questions surround the timing: the anniversary of September 11^th; and just as President Obama opened up a razor-thin lead in the polls.

Until now, I’ve been dismissive of comparisons between this year’s election and the one in 1980. For a start, Obama hasn’t ever made Jimmy Carter’s big mistake: honestly telling Americans that they might have to adjust their expectations. Most importantly, Mitt Romney is, quite simply, no Ronald Reagan.

Last week’s events, however, evoke an uncanny parallel with the embassy attack and hostage crisis in Iran while Carter was trying to get re-elected. In 1980 Reagan’s backers were able to portray Carter as weak on foreign policy, while the Gipper himself held aloof and hammered the President on the economy (these were the days before a candidate had to look into the camera and approve campaign ads).

The results were: a Reagan victory; the arming and financing of Saddam Hussein to buttress Iran; a decade of escalation on every front; eventual war against Saddam in the Persian Gulf, requiring; US military bases in Saudi Arabia – the kick-off for Osama bin Laden’s grudge match against the US; September 11; Afghanistan; Iraq; Afghanistan (yes, I’ve mentioned it twice: the mis-handling of the initial Afghan invasion in the headlong rush to Iraq left a quagmire we’re still drowning in).

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not suggesting there’s some far-ranging conspiracy in play; there doesn’t need to be. You see, the radical Islamist fringe has figured out the big secret: with the right people in office, it only needs a small group of committed lunatics to provoke the US into bone-headed, monumental overreaction. And that’s the other parallel here – the series of bombings that led up to 9/11.

All reports indicate that the assault on America’s Libyan Embassy was perpetrated by a small group who took advantage of a wrong-headed, but otherwise innocent, protest. The furore over a moron’s YouTube video is incidental (the Islamic world has long suspected that a proportion of westerners hold them in contempt; no news there). My guess is those behind the killings hope, by doing this right now, they can induce a game of one-upmanship between the presidential candidates; or – even better for them – a Romney Presidency.

Already, the Conservative rhetoric is ramping-up Stateside; and Romney, lacking even the subtlety of Ronald Reagan(!), has claimed the deaths as resulting from Obama’s foreign policy – backed up by, among others, Dick Cheney’s daughter (why do we allow these people to procreate?).

Obama is unlikely to be drawn into any brinkmanship; he’s too smart. And I still have faith that, no matter how bad things are, Americans won’t elect a Romney/Ryan ticket – but then, I was certain they’d never elect another Bush, much less do it twice.

I’m moved to recite the old proverb: each time we fail to learn from history, the price of the lesson goes up.

Hang on to your hats, brethren; there may be a storm coming.